中国乐见股市泡沫？

李星玥

摘要: Bubbles come in different shapes and forms, but it is striking how often they are the byproduct of attempts to make difficult economic transitions. This was true of the US stock market in the late 192 ...

China blows an equity bubble from its era of investment-led growth Bubbles come in different shapes and forms, but it is striking how often they are the byproduct of attempts to make difficult economic transitions. This was true of the US stock market in the late 1920s as Americans stumbled towards the hegemonic global role previously played by the British. 泡沫以不同的形式出现，但引人注目的是，它们常常是努力进行艰难经济转型的副产品。上世纪20年代末期美国股市泡沫就是经济转型的副产品，当时美国正跌跌撞撞地迈向早先由英国占据的全球霸主地位。 It was true of the property and equity markets in Japan in the 1980s, when an export-led growth model that had worked well in the catch-up phase ceased to be viable in a country that had turned into an economic giant. So, too, with China today, where first a property bubble and now an incipient stock market bubble have a great deal to do with imbalances in an economy that needs to shift from investment-led growth to increased consumption. 上世纪80年代日本房地产和股票市场的泡沫同样如此，当时日本已经成为一个经济巨人，那种在追赶阶段行之有效的出口导向增长模式不再有效。如今的中国也是如此——在中国，先是房地产泡沫，现在则是初露端倪的股市泡沫，它们与中国经济失衡有很大关联——中国经济增长模式需要从投资主导型转向消费主导型。 Such transitions are difficult because of the clash of vested interests. Chinese local government officials have been big beneficiaries of easy financing of infrastructure investment and the accompanying land grab. State-owned enterprises have lived handsomely off the same gravy train. At every level of the public sector there are people for whom the status quo is a cornucopia. Equally to the point, liberalisation, which is the key to an effective transition, can only erode the power of the communist party. 由于与既得利益发生冲突，此类转型非常艰难。宽松的基础设施投资项目融资，以及伴随而来的征地，其一大受益者是地方政府官员。国有企业靠着同样轻松的财路也过得很滋润。在每一级的公共部门都有受益于现状的人。同样重要的是，自由化是有效转型的关键，而它只会侵蚀中共的权力。 For those officials who see that change is essential, a further difficulty arises from the new sluggishness of the Chinese economy. Since their legitimacy derives from delivering high economic growth they are under pressure. It is all too easy to solve the problem by throwing more money at infrastructure and at industries that suffer surplus capacity. Yet this can only be done at the cost of creating bubbles, running up more debt and misallocating resources on a grandiose scale in what economists of the Austrian school call malinvestment. 对那些认为改变至关重要的官员来说，进一步的困难源于中国经济新的低迷状态。由于他们观点的合理性源于实现经济高速增长，现在他们倍感压力。向基础设施和产能过剩行业投放更多资金来解决问题当然容易。然而，这样做必须付出制造泡沫的代价，会累积更多债务并造成大规模资源错配，奥地利学派经济学家称之为“不当投资”(malinvestment)。 There is one sense, though, in which euphoria in mainland Chinese equities is unusual. Far from being an unintended consequence of policy, the authorities are egging investors on with articles in the state-run press seeking to justify extreme valuations. The People’s Bank of China has been busy cutting interest rates. And to good effect. The Institute of International Finance, a club of global banks, says Chinese retail investors have increased their equity investment via margin borrowing by almost 85 per cent this year to a record $400bn. 然而，人们感觉，中国内地股市出现的狂热情绪非同寻常。股市狂热远非意料之外的政策结果，相反，中国有关部门在官方媒体上发表文章试图证明极端估值的合理性，从而鼓动投资者投身股市。中国人民银行(PBOC)一直忙着降息，并取得了良好的效果。全球银行俱乐部——国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)表示，中国散户投资者通过融资将股票投资增加了近85%，达到创纪录的4000亿美元。

李星玥

Why, you might ask, would those charming officials in Beijing wish to encourage a bubble? A consequence of the investment boom is that many state-owned enterprises are lossmaking, while state-owned banks have lent excessively. The authorities are urging them to lend more despite the fact that they will never be repaid in full.       
你或许会问，中国政府那些富有魅力的官员为何希望鼓励股市泡沫？投资繁荣的一个后果是，许多国有企业出现亏损，同时国有银行过度放贷。中国政府正敦促它们继续加大放贷，尽管这些贷款永远也不会全部得到偿还。
         
The obvious way to de-risk this dangerous game of extend and pretend is to recapitalise the state-owned corporate sector. Bubble valuations will make this easier and cheaper. Foreign investors, meantime, are set to be granted better access to China’s domestic A shares. While Chinese capital is pouring out of the country foreigners are clamouring to move in. EPFR, the data provider, detects a thaw in sentiment towards a market that foreign institutional investors have recently shunned.        显然，为这种“延期和假装”(extend and pretend)的危险游戏消除风险的办法是，对国有企业进行资本重组。泡沫化的估值将会降低这种资本重组的难度和成本。与此同时，外国投资者将获准更容易地投资国内的A股市场。尽管中国的资本正大量投向海外，但外国人也在吵闹着要求进入中国市场。数据提供商EPFR发现，虽然外国机构投资者最近曾规避中国市场，但现在情绪有所缓和。

李星玥

The debate on whether Chinese A shares should be included in the MSCI Emerging Market Index suggests that, whatever decision MSCI makes this week, there will soon be more forced investors in this market. How convenient for the authorities in Beijing. That also illustrates how passive investing can reward bad behaviour. China, after all, has the world’s biggest crisis of corporate governance.       
围绕中国A股是否应被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Market Index)的辩论表明，无论MSCI明晟本周做出何种决定，这个市场将很快迎来更多被动型投资者。对于中国当局来说，这是多么便利啊。它还展示了，被动投资是如何奖励不当行为的。毕竟，中国有着全球最大的企业治理危机。（编者注：此文写于MSCI明晟本周二宣布决定之前。MSCI明晟周二表示，一旦“几个与市场准入有关的重要遗留问题得到解决”，就会宣布相关决定。）
         
Scandals have highlighted failure to enforce securities laws to ensure the integrity of accounts, abuse of conflicts of interest in state-owned enterprise, abusive related party transactions and seriously deficient property rights. Any investor in an indexed fund that includes A shares will be exposed to serious corporate dross. When these companies raise capital that exposure will increase. The game changes from extend and pretend to pass the toxic parcel.       
中国证券市场爆发的丑闻突显出，证券法未能得到有力执行以确保会计账目的完整性，存在大量的国有企业利益冲突，关联交易泛滥，产权严重不完善。任何投资于纳入A股的指数基金的投资者，都将面对大量的垃圾企业。当这些企业筹集资本的时候，这种敞口将会增加。游戏从“延期和假装”变为“击鼓传毒花”。

李星玥

Until now the possibility of a Chinese bubble deflating was of little concern in the west. Bubbles were financed by domestic saving. That is now beginning to change. As liberalisation continues the scope for contagion outside China will multiply. China and the developed world are set to become more uncomfortable financial bedfellows.
迄今为止，西方还不太担心中国泡沫破裂的可能性。过去泡沫是由国内储蓄“吹大”的。现在这种情况开始发生改变。随着自由化的推进，危机蔓延到中国以外的范围将会倍增。中国和发达世界将越来越令人不安地在金融上保持同步。